Friday, January 22, 2010

Ninth Place

So the Flames lost a sixth game in a row on Thursday to Chicago. Unsurprising given Chicago are probably the best team in the NHL this season, and the fact the Flames have scored more than three goals twice in about 30 games. Today, they were linked to a move for the Atlanta Thrashers' Ilya Kovalchuk, an impending free agent, and undoubtedly the top prospective capture in the summer. For Bob McKenzie to link him to Calgary would suggest there is at least a little smoke to go with the fire witness; his almost spot on pick for the Canadian Olympic squad, Patrice Bergeron and all.

A trade into Cowtown is seemingly inevitable, given the Flames scoring woes. A ninth place finish would be an unthinkable end to the season and things need to be put in order relatively quickly. GM Darryl Sutter has been in New Jersey on Wednesday and Philadelphia on Thursday. Why would he miss games if not for a trip to talk business with his opposite numbers, or watch prospective trade targets? Which players could they make a trade for Kovalchuk with? The 'core' players have drawn increasing fire; they are now on their fourth coach in four years, to little overall difference. It can't keep being the coaches fault. Among the core, Dion Phaneuf seems to be a real lightning rod for the fans at present. I don't think he's been as bad as Robyn Regehr has this season, but he's the biggest trading chip they have. Atlanta would doubtless want proven NHL talent back for the loss of their star goalscorer.

How about, to really shake things up: to Calgary, Ilya Kovalchuk, on the agreement he signs an extension of 4 yrs@$9m. If he doesn't like it in Calgary he can leave relatively quickly. To Atlanta: Dion Phaneuf ($7m a year), David Moss ($1.2m a year), Fredrik Sjostrom ($0.75m) . I know Kovalchuk is rumoured to want $11m a year for 10 years, but that is to stay in Atlanta. I think he may accept less to move to a hockey market. There will undoubtedly be other clubs in the running. To New Jersey: Robyn Regehr ($4.02m a year) and Nigel Dawes ($0.85m) for Travis Zajac ($3.88m). Whether NJ need another defenceman in charge with Lemaire in charge of a defensively sound unit is a moot point, but Regehr is also a tradeable asset. The Sutter brothers are confessed admirers of Zajac.

Add into that no extension for Olli Jokinen, who has, in hindsight, been a very poor move, and a raise for the UFA Rene Bourque (to $3.5m-4m, from $1.2m). Dawes can go because the Flames have too many third line left wingers being pressed into positions higher up the lines than they can manage. And waivers for McBackup. Sorry, but he needs replacing.

A line-up could look like this (salary cap hit in millions, resigned UFAs in green):

Forwards:
Kovalchuk (9.0)- Zajac (3.89) - Iginla (7.0)
UFA - Langkow (4.5) - Bourque (3.75)
Glencross (1.2) - Boyd (0.8) - UFA
Nystrom (0.8) - Conroy (0.75) - Prust (0.5)
McGrattan (0.55) - Lundmark (0.6)

Defence:
Bouwmeester (6.68) - UFA
Sarich (3.6) - Giordano (0.892)
Pardy (0.7) - Johnson (0.6)
Kronwall (0.5)

Goal:
Kiprusoff (5.83)
UFA (0.5)

That leaves $8.5m for a second line left winger, a third line right winger and a defensive partner for Bouwmeester. Tight, but doable? How about Volchenkov from Ottawa ($3.0m) and Matt Lombardi back from Phoenix ($1.8m) as a utility bottom-6 forward? That leaves $3.7m in cap room to find a left winger and to leave some cap space. Armchair General Manager: probably the easiest game in the world...

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